展望半导体产业未来十年,10nm成“劫”点?

上网时间: 2013年09月24日? 作者:Rick Merritt? 我来评论 【字号: ? ?小】

关键字:半导体产业? 芯片供应商? 芯片制造商?

Economically, the semiconductor industry is headed for good times as the global economy pulls out of prolonged recession led by slow growth in Europe. Technologically, chip vendors are facing challenges that ultimately could undermine their business model.

That was the appropriately schizophrenic forecast offered by Bill McClean, president of IC Insights, in his annual fall forecast here. "In general the trend for growth in semiconductors will improve in the next 10 years," McClean said.

Overall, he expects in the current 10 years a consolidating chip sector could see 8 percent growth and flat to slightly positive average selling prices. That's significantly better than the 4.7 percent growth and 3 percent ASP declines of the past decade.

Specifically, McClean forecasts market growth will nudge up to 11 percent and 13 percent in 2015 and 2016, largely on rising worldwide GDP growth. He also pegged the next down cycle of the semiconductor industry will start in 2017.

McClean said he believes the industry as a whole will continue to lower costs per transistor over the next five years despite steep technical challenges. However, he suggested all bets are off at the 10nm level when the industry adopts extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography and 450mm wafers.

"To get to 10nm we are already planning on playing tricks with EUV and we don't even have EUV in place," he said. "I've been through debates about getting to submicron, but this seems more real to me," said McClean who has tracked the industry since the 1980s.

Rising transistor costs would undermine systems sales based on traditional replacement cycles that anticipate significantly cheaper, faster systems every two years.

"The whole infrastructure behind electronics systems sales could fall away -- that's definitely a possibility," McClean said. "I don’t know exactly what's going to happen when, but it’s a negative and they only question is how negative is it," he said.

Members of an elite audience of industry forecasters at his presentation here disagreed. As chip makers start using double-patterned lithography at 20nm and beyond, cost per transistor are already going up, said a representative of Globalfoundries here. But those costs can be mitigated by smart use of design features such as FinFETs and system partitioning.

In foils on the following pages, McClean provided details on his forecasts, including an in-depth look at China which remains for the foreseeable future a big force is using and a small forcing in making chips, he said.

By the numbers and regions

McClean provided a quarterly breakdown of his forecast through 2014 (above) and a regional outlook through 2017 (below) which shows Asia grabbing an increasing share of the market.

By logic and memory

Analog is taking a slightly larger share of the pie in the short term (above) while DRAM and flash see significantly rising ASPs.

Of fabs and foundries

Fab gear spending is generally on the rise through 2016 as chip makers set a heady pace (above). But most of the checks get written by an increasingly small set of big chip makers (below).

Of Samsung and Apple

In one of the most watched rivalries in electronics, Apple will pay an estimated $4.6 billion to Samsung for foundry services this year, McClean estimates. It's a good deal for Apple, he says, because Samsung provides a stable supply of leading-edge technology. He speculates Samsung also bundles prices for memory and foundry, giving Apple a great deal.

Many industry watchers are alive with predictions Apple will shift to TSMC which is building a Fab 14 some say is just for Apple. McClean says TSMC has not had the capacity to take on Apple's custom chips to date, leaving Apple few choices for its high volume, leading-edge needs.

Chips inside China, Part 1

Although China's GDP has been trending down to a still hefty 7 percent (above), it continues to consume an incresasingly large share of the world's silicon (below). Indeed it has become a top consumer of PCs, cellphones, cars, and digital TVs (bottom).

Chips inside China, Part 2

Although a rising giant in chip consumption, China is still a midget in chip manufacturing. McClean expects it will only rise from making about 3 percent of worldwide chips today to about 6 percent in 2017. Intel and Hynix are by far the largest chip makers in China today with Samsung ramping up a big fab next year.

Chip consolidation continues

Fewer than eight companies will be able to make the investments to move into 10nm chip making, the state of the art for 2017, says McClean. That means the big gulf between the big and small chip makers will significantly widen.

相关阅读:
? 为芯片市场把脉,已回归健康成长?
? 1H13半导体厂商Top 20,无晶圆和代工厂涨势凶猛
? 作为世界工厂,中国本土半导体业为何发展缓慢?

标签 其它??

[ 投票数:? ] 收藏 ??? 打印版 ??? 推荐给同仁 ??? 发送查询 ??? ?订阅杂志

评论
免费订阅资讯速递
信息速递-请选择您感兴趣的技术领域:
  • 安防监控
  • 便携设备
  • 消费电子
  • 通信与网络
  • 分销与服务
  • 制造与测试
  • 工业与医疗
  • 汽车电子
  • 计算机与OA
  • 电源管理
  • 无源器件与模组
  • 新能源
  • 供应链管理
论坛速递
相关信息
  • 半导体产业分析
  • 国际电子商情提供有关半导体产业分析、市场行情、发展趋势等方面的最新资讯,以便于您预测半导体产业发展前景。

  • 什么是芯片制造商?
  • 国际电子商情提供相关芯片制造商技术文章及相关芯片制造商新闻趋势,及更新最新相关芯片制造商电子产品技术

  • 什么是芯片供应商?
  • 国际电子商情提供相关芯片供应商技术文章及相关芯片供应商新闻趋势,及更新最新相关芯片供应商电子产品技术

?新浪微博推荐
Global Sources


编辑推荐
?大家正在说


打开微信“扫一扫”,打开网页后点击屏幕右上角分享按钮

1.扫描左侧二维码
2.点击右上角的分享按钮
3.选择分享给朋友
电子元器件数据手册下载
数据手册搜索

Datasheets China.com

《汽车电子特刊》

汽车电子系统在现代的汽车中占有的比重越来越高,对产品设计的工程师来说,产品的设计和验证面临着很多的挑战。本期《汽车电子特刊》将会向您呈现ADI技术对于汽车电子行业的应用等,还有IIC汽车电子论坛的精彩回顾哦!

扫一扫,关注最新资讯

esmc